Natural Disaster Risks in Central Asia

Background

Bratislava, SLOVAKIA - 24 April 2012 -Central Asia is highly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards including earthquakes, landslides, floods, mudslides and droughts. Both exposure to natural hazards and the vulnerability of populations, infrastructure, and economies has risen in the last few decades. Over the last ten years, Central Asian governments and the international community have undertaken an increasing number of disaster reduction initiatives to address the risks posed by these factors. However, many of these efforts are based upon a limited understanding of disaster risks.

The study “Natural Disaster Risks in Central Asia: A Synthesis” prepared for the 2011 Central Asian Regional Risk Assessment (CARRA) conference by UNDP, clarifies and outlines the natural disaster risks facing Central Asia.  The study offers a baseline analysis for identifying disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate risk management (CRM) interventions in the region. Outlining five distinct issues - exposure, climate change, vulnerability, risk assessments and policy making – it reaches the conclusion that there is substantial work to be done to reduce vulnerability in the region in terms of understanding the risks, as well as addressing them.  Many risks are transboundary in nature and can be best analyzed and addressed at regional level.

 

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Kyrgyzstan: Despite declining industrial production and shrinking GDP, real wages continue to grow.

Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN – 12 April 2012 - After a fall of 12.5 percent in January 2012, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP continued to fall in February and the overall decline during the first two months of 2012 was 10.5 percent (Chart 1). As was indicated in our previous analysis, the economic slowdown was mostly driven by a sharp decline in industrial production that started in November 2011 and deepened in the following months. As official statistics indicate, the drop in industrial production was due to a big fall in the output of the Kumtor gold-mining complex. Excluding Kumtor production, official GDP growth was 3.7 percent in January-February 2012 compared to the same period in 2011.  

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Belarus economic update March 2012

Minsk, BELARUS –30 March 2012 - Over the past months the government has been able to stem the tide of widening macroeconomic and external imbalances that threatened with sizable economic disruptions just half a year ago. Improved fiscal and monetary policies have brought progress in lowering the inflation rate and external imbalances for the time being.

But these improvements came at a significant cost, and do not bring a sustainable resolution. Plugging the gaping financing gap required a combination of drastic fiscal and monetary tightening, large-scale sales of strategic assets, and a rapid rise in external debt, leaving the government entirely dependent on external support, mainly from Russia and China. This approach has restored short-term cash-flow and hence “bought some time”, but it is not sustainable beyond a few quarters. The following analysis reflects the immediate outcome of the emergency measures taken by the government in the economy and tries to estimate their impact on household budgets and living standards heavily affected by the domestic crisis of the past year.

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Kyrgyzstan: GDP drops by 12.5 percent in January 2012

Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN – 12 March 2012 - After reaching strong growth in fall 2011 Kyrgyzstan’s GDP started to decline in November 2011 and fell by 12.5 percent in January 2012 on year-on-year basis. The economic slowdown was mostly driven by a sharp decline in industrial production that started in November 2011 and deepened in the following two months. Official statistics indicate the drop in industrial production was due to a big fall in the output of the Kumtor gold-mining complex. As a matter of fact official GDP growth calculated excluding Kumtor production was 1.3 percent in January 2012 compared to January 2011.  

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